Egypt – The UN Migration Agency (IOM) in Egypt has released a publication entitled, Promoting a Common Understanding of Migration Trends which proposes an alternative and innovative methodology for interpreting economic migration flows.

The model presented in the publication helps in building evidence-based labour market and demographic scenarios to support countries of origin and destination of labour migrants in improving managing migration flows in an economically efficient and humane way, for the benefit of all. The publication, which is now available at IOM’s Online Bookstore, is written by IOM Consultant Prof. Michele Bruni, whose research for over 20 years has focused on the development of stock and flow models and their application to the analysis of the labour market.

According to Eurostat, between 2010 and 2100 Europe’s population is projected to decline by more than 100 million (13.7 percent). Based on the same source, the region’s old age/dependency ratio – the percentage of non-working over 65-year-olds dependent on those of active working age – will nearly double to 1.9 workers per retiree by 2060, from 3.7 in 2012. This indicates an “increasing burden to provide for social expenditure related to population aging (for example, pensions, healthcare and institutional care),” according to the publication.

Conversely, countries in the Middle East and North Africa experience high youth unemployment as a result of booming fertility rates. In Egypt, every year approximately 550,000 new Egyptian workers join an already saturated labour market and many of them join the ranks of the 3.6 million unemployed.

The demographic transitions in these countries could be addressed by promoting a common understanding on how labour market needs on both sides of the Mediterranean can be aligned to plan and manage successful labour migration for the benefit of all.

The publication was made possible within the framework of IOM’s cooperation with the Government of Egypt for enhancing mobility of Egyptian citizens as an alternative to addressing labour market challenges, and in preventing irregular migration from the country, in particular among youth. “IOM Egypt established a migration unit with Egypt’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), which will use the proposed model to prepare forecasts and analysis of labour market needs in Egypt and abroad,” explained Teuta Grazhdani, IOM Egypt’s Head of Labour Mobility and Human Development Unit.

The purpose is to support relevant government authorities in initiating evidence-based dialogue on labour mobility with European and non-European countries as well as promoting alternatives to irregular migration for the benefit of all, including countries of departure and arrival and, most importantly, for migrants themselves,” said Grazhdani. Within the same framework, IOM Egypt recently facilitated a two-day study visit to Berlin, Germany, for seven CAPMAS officials to better mainstream migration data into national development plans. The delegation met with the IOM Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC) and the German authorities to discuss the importance of migration data collection, and data sharing and analysis to inform policy development.

This publication is part of the “Developing Capacities for Forecasting and Planning Migration across the Mediterranean project funded by IOM’s Development Fund and implemented by IOM Egypt.

For further information, please contact Teuta Grazhdani at IOM Egypt. Tel: +202-27365140, Email: iomegypt@iom.int