Promoting a Common Understanding of Migration Trends

The primary goal of the paper is to propose a methodology to govern migration flows in an economically efficient and humane way. The proposal will introduce an alternative interpretation of economic migration flows that will allow for the classification of countries in potential departure and arrival countries, and more importantly to explain arrivals. The model will then be used – in substitution of the mechanical and unrealistic hypothesis that are presently adopted – to obtain a new procedure to jointly build labour market and demographic scenarios. The procedure will allow for the estimation of future labour needs and migration flows that will affect the European Union and countries characterized by the most significant declines in working-age population (WAP), as well as analyse the socioeconomic impacts of these migration flows. The same procedure will be done for Egypt, as a counter example of a country likely to send migrants. After discussing the extent to which migrations are the only possible solution to the structural lack of labour supply, the paper will present a detailed proposal on how to address, in a cooperative way, the mass migration that will take place from Africa to the European Union, both across the Mediterranean and increasingly through the Balkan countries.

Dr Michele Bruni
International Organization for Migration
Type of Publication: 
Studies and reports
Year of Publication: 

Table of Contents

  • Executive summary
  • Part 1. A new methodology for jointly building labour market and demographic scenarios
  • Migration theories
  • Demographic forecasts
  • A new model to explain and forecast immigration flows
  • The demographic transition
  • A new procedure for jointly building labour market and demographic scenarios
  • Part 2. The scenarios Demographic trends in Europe
  • European Union migrant stock
  • The demographic future of Europe according to the standard projections
  • The labour market situation
  • Labour market and demographic scenarios, 2015–2030
  • Part 3. The management of Mediterranean migration flows: A proposal
  • The impact of migration on arrival countries and departure countries
  • Some final observations
  • Alternatives to migration
  • Conclusions and the proposed response 
  • Annexes
  • Introduction
  • The structure of the paper
  • The theoretical analysis
  • The empirical study
  • Policy suggestions
  • PART 1. The theoretical analysis
  • Introduction
  • Migration theories A survey of the literature
  • The ancestors 
  • Demography
  • Neoclassical models 
  • The macroeconomic model 
  • The individual approach
  • The new economics of labour migration
  • Dual labour market theory 
  • World-systems theory 
  • A critical assessment of migration theories 
  • Demographic forecasting
  • The United Nations methodology
  • The assumptions regarding fertility and mortality
  • The assumptions regarding migration
  • Projections, forecasts and hypotheses
  • Migration trends: 1950–2010
  • Migration trends and demographic trends: Some contradictory results 
  • Forecasting labour market trends: A review of the literature 
  • A model for explaining and forecasting migrations flows 
  • A stock-flow model of the labour market
  • The migration model
  • Demographic transition, population dynamics and demographic polarization
  • A new procedure for jointly building labour market and demographic scenarios
  • PART 2. The scenarios  Demographic trends in Europe and in the EU28
  • Europe
  • The European Union
  • The single countries of the European Union
  • The migrant stock
  • The demographic projection by UN DESA 
  • The European Union labour market: An overview 
  • The labour market and demographic scenarios for the European Union and Egypt: 2015–2030
  • The labour market and demographic scenarios for the European Union
  • The European Union scenarios for the period 2015–2030
  • Demographic scenarios Some case studies 
  • Labour market and demographic scenarios for Egypt
  • Some final considerations
  • PART 3. The management of Mediterranean migration flows: A proposal
  • A survey of the literature on the social and economic impact of migrations
  • Introduction
  • Arrival countries
  • Departure countries
  • Some final considerations
  • Alternative to migration
  • Is de-growth a solution to the shortage of labour?
  • Managing a labour market characterized by a structural lack of labour
  • Demand side measures
  • Supply side measures
  • Some final considerations
  • Managing the Mediterranean migration flows: A proposal
  • Annexes
  • Demographic and labour market scenarios for six European Union countries
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Poland
  • Spain
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • The education migration fund
  • The structural burden
  • The demographic disequilibrium
  • Economic migrants and refugees
  • Bibliography